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Publikation: Simulating Changes in Tourism Demand: A Case Study of Two German Regions.

Reintinger, C.; Berghammer, A.; Schmude, J.

Reintinger, C.; Berghammer, A.; Schmude, J. (2016): Simulating Changes in Tourism Demand: A Case Study of Two German Regions. Tourism Geographies, 18/3, 233–257.


Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.